Private property issue #42 - year in review

Private Property – our weekly newsletter that gives you insights into what's happening in the NZ property market. Written by managing director Andrew Nicol. Sign up to receive this in your inbox every Thursday.

It’s been a big year for property investors. I described it as a “sh*t show” in our last newsletter.

So, since this is the last issue of Private Property for the year (we’ll be back in late January), let’s look at everything that happened in 2022.

It’s not just been a big year in property. It’s also been a big year for the team at Opes. We’ve continued our mission to educate New Zealanders about investment by releasing:

• 376 podcasts
• 153 articles on our website
• 94 YouTube videos
• 42 issues of Private Property (this newsletter)
• 16 webinars
• And far too many TikToks

We also released our book – Wealth Plan – and held 5 live in-person events.

Ed and I spoke at 8 property investors' associations … all the way from Whangarei to Invercargill. And we were the primary sponsor of the Opes Partners NZ Property Investors Federation Conference in Palmerston North.

On top of all this, our media team produced 16 magazines – 12 issues of NZ Property Investor and 4 editions of Informed Investor.

I don’t write this to brag. But, to say thank you.

Without you reading, listening and watching … this content would be for nothing.

It’s you – and the success you have when using this information – that makes producing all this content worth it.

Enough of the sappy stuff. Here’s what happened in the property market this year.

#1 – Interest rates soared

This time last year, the 1-year interest rate was 3.5%.

Today, it’s 6.5%.

As interest rates surge, more properties are negatively geared. So many investors must top up their property. In some instances, this reaches $400 a week.

To combat this, property investors are using these 7 strategies to manage their cash flow as interest rates increase.

But why did interest rates surge? It all came down to the next big trend.

#2 – Inflation skyrocketed

Today’s high interest rates have been driven by inflation. This skyrocketed out of the 1-3% target band, reaching 7.3% in June.

The Reserve Bank has been trying to wrangle it back down for the best part of the year.

Our team has kept you updated on what’s happening in the market. Issue 40 of Private Property is still your best guide on how inflation impacts interest rates and where rates are going.

#3 – House prices have fallen

House prices declined throughout 2022.

On average, prices fell 12.5% since their peak in November last year. However, not everywhere fell equally.

Throughout the changing market, this newsletter has kept things transparent, sharing who should and shouldn’t invest in this current market.

And the team has also kept you up to date with the latest data about the New Zealand property market.

#4 What’s going to happen in 2023?

After all that, no wonder I called 2022 a sh*t show for investors.

But don’t expect 2023 to be a repeat of this year.

Interest rates will likely peak in April/May next year, with the property market bottoming out mid-way through the year.

After that, house prices are likely to increase. The Treasury’s latest prediction is that house prices will increase 24% over the 3 years after the bottom of the market.

And we’ve got episodes of the Property Academy Podcast coming throughout December that detail the opportunities and the forecasts for what’ll happen in the next 12 months.

Let’s get into your summer reading list.

Summer reading / listening list

Our team pumps out a lot of content for you to binge.

And some of my favourite analysis this year has been on the different types of property, the best places to invest and our honest analyses of different property developers.

So if you want to learn more about property over your summer break, here’s what to watch, read and listen to.

WATCH

1. Are there too many townhouses?
2. 5 mistakes kiwi property investors always make (avoid these)
3. (Must watch) When should I use an interest-only mortgage
4. Best places to invest in Auckland
5. Online valuations comparison: Homes.co.nz vs OneRoof vs QV

READ

1. Never do this with your investment property …
2. Williams Corporation – do they build good investment properties? An honest review
3. School Zones – do they make your house go up in value faster?
4. Car parks vs garages vs no car park – what’s the better investment?
5. New builds - the ultimate guide for every property investor

LISTEN

You should also listen to our flagship podcast, The Property Academy Podcast, which releases a new episode every single day (including weekends, Christmas and New Years)

And also our most recent show – Property ExpLained – where our journalist, Laine Moger, takes you through the basics of property and reads aloud the articles she writes.

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