Private property issue #81 - National vs labour

Our election is on this Saturday. Don’t know about you, but I’m election-ed out.

So, let’s look at it in a different way.

Lots of investors have been waiting. Holding off to see if National gets in before buying a property.

There’s often a perception that house prices go up faster under National. But is it true? Let’s dig into the data.

National vs Labour: When do house prices go up faster?

This shows the annual house price increases (or decreases) under National and Labour.

What do you see? What’s the main message you take from this graph?

House prices have gone up (and down) under every type of government. Doesn’t matter whether it’s National or Labour.

But the fastest house price increases happened while Labour was in power.

House prices went up 31% (at their fastest) under the current government. And they increased by 23% at their fastest point when Helen Clark was the prime minister.

If you average it out, sometimes house prices have increased faster under Labour. Sometimes, they’ve increased faster under National.

So it’s all National and Labour’s fault?

Now, you might say: “But Andrew, there are a heap of other factors to consider.”

That’s true. House prices increased around 2005 as the economy was doing well.

Property values went down in 2008 … we had a global financial crisis.

These factors are often outside the government’s control.

Same thing with house prices during Covid. They boomed as interest rates (around the world) fell.

That’s my point.

No matter who’s in power, there will always be external factors that push property prices up or down.

It’s not just about whether it’s a blue, red, or whatever shade of government.

What matters are long-term external factors. Things like:

• Population growth
• Net migration
• Housing supply
• Council planning rules

And some short-term factors, too ... but they’re not always directly influenced by the government.

“Are you telling me to vote for Labour?”

There have been times when house prices have gone up more under Labour.

But let me be clear. I’m not telling you to vote for any particular party.

Vote for whoever you like on Saturday.

After all, you don’t just vote based on house prices and property policies. You vote based on who you think will take the country in the right direction.

Just know that house prices tend to go up no matter who’s sitting around the cabinet table.

Sometimes, they’ve gone up faster under Labour.

Sometimes, they’ve gone up faster under National.

Of course, some parties have better policies for property investors than others. But homeowners have done well under all shades of government. Check out this webinar to learn more.

Whatever your choice, do the right thing. Go out and vote.