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This table shows each bank’s prediction between December 2024 and December 2025.

Let’s dig into the details of each bank’s prediction.

More from Opes:

Reserve Bank house price predictions

The Reserve Bank puts out its house price forecasts every 3 months. This happens when they release their Monetary Policy Statement.

Here is the latest forecast they released in February 2024.

The Reserve Bank predicts that house prices will go up 3.79% in the year to December 2025.

ANZ house price predictions

ANZ frequently puts out new house price predictions. They update these often and summarise them in their monthly report – Property Focus.

ANZ predicts that house prices will go up 6.00% in the year to December 2025.

ASB house price predictions

ASB releases new house price predictions every quarter. These are part of their Quarterly Economic Forecasts. Though in truth, sometimes they come out once every 4 months.

They published their latest forecast in December 2024. This showed that they think house prices will increase by 9.40% in the year to December 2025.

They don’t release their spreadsheets like the Reserve Bank, ANZ and Westpac do. But they do release a range of predictions, like this:

ASB house price predictions 20205
Example of ASB house price and economic forecasts

BNZ house price predictions

Like ASB, BNZ doesn’t release a spreadsheet with their forecasts. But they do regularly update their predictions in their weekly Markets Outlook report.

The latest forecast I’ve seen came out in February 2025. At that point, they thought house prices would go up by 6.80% in the year to December 2025.

Here’s an example of one of their Markets Outlook reports.

BNZ house price predictions 2025
Example of BNZ house price and economic forecasts

Westpac house price predictions

Westpac is one of the only banks that releases all their forecasts in a spreadsheet. This means we can see more closely where they think house prices will go.

Westpac released its most recent forecast in February 2024. At that point, Westpac thought that house prices would go up by 7.19% in the 12 months to December 2025.

How house price predictions helped Mark make his move

A while back, I spoke with an investor named Mark. He was in his early 50s, based in Wellington, and had been sitting on the fence about buying another property.

At one of our webinars, Mark asked, “With prices the way they are, do you think now’s the right time to buy—or should I wait?”

We had a good chat about house price predictions at the time. I showed him how the data suggested prices were stabilising and were forecast to grow steadily over the next few years. 

But what really struck him was when I explained that prices had already hit their low point in his area.

Mark told me, “I’ve been waiting for the bottom, but I didn’t realise we’d already passed it.”

Three months later, I got an email from him. He’d bought a new-build townhouse in Lower Hutt. He told me he felt confident because he wasn’t guessing anymore—he had the data to back him up.

For Mark, understanding house price predictions wasn’t about trying to time the market perfectly. It was about having the confidence to make a decision based on facts, not fear.

And maybe it’s the same for you.

  • Maybe you’re waiting for a sign to make your next move.
  • Or maybe you’ve got more opportunity now than you realise.

Either way, understanding where the market’s heading can help you make smarter decisions.

Is it a good time for me to invest?

The median forecaster says house prices will increase by 6.80% in the year to December 2025.

So what would happen if you bought an $800k property in Auckland and it went up in value by 6.80% next year?

By the end of the year, it might be worth $854,400. You made $54,400.

Based on the bank's forecasts, here’s what the returns would look like.

Ed solo

Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.

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