What does the graph show?

This graph shows the region’s property price compared to where we’d ‘expect’ it to be. When the line is below 0%, e.g., -5%, then property prices in the region are ‘undervalued’. Property prices are less expensive than what we might expect them to be. This means it could be a good time to buy. When the line is above 0%, e.g. 7%, then property prices in the region are ‘overvalued’. Property prices are more expensive than what we might expect them to be. This means there might be better property options in other regions.

How do I use the graph?

This graph is often used to get a sense of whether property prices look “cheap” or “expensive” within a region. When the area is overvalued, it looks a bit more expensive than we’d expect it to be. When the area is undervalued, it looks a bit cheaper than we’d expect it to be. You can then use this information to understand which areas might achieve faster capital growth over the medium term. For instance, an under-valued region (where the property market is relatively cold) might go up in value quickly over the next 5 years. Whereas an over-valued region (where the property market is hot) might go up in value more slowly over those 5 years. It’s not a perfect model and won’t tell you where property prices will go tomorrow. But it can give you a sense of where the opportunities might be. Assuming nothing has structurally changed within the property market.

What makes the line go up and down?

The line goes up and down based on how quickly house prices are increasing compared to the rest of the country. When the line goes up, property prices in the region are increasing faster than the whole of New Zealand. When the line goes down, property prices in the region are increasing more slowly (or going down faster) than the rest of the country. If the line is flat, then property prices in the region are increasing (or decreasing) at the same rate as the rest of the country.

What does undervalued mean?

An area is undervalued if property prices in the region are lower than what we’d expect them to be. Let’s say Auckland property prices are usually 1.5x New Zealand property prices. Now, let’s say Auckland property prices are actually 1.2x New Zealand property prices (in a specific month). In that case, Auckland property prices are undervalued by 20% at that point in time. If this was the case, it suggests that there may be a buying opportunity within the region. At least compared to the rest of the country.

What does overvalued mean?

An area is overvalued if property prices in the region are higher than what we’d expect them to be. For instance, let’s say Auckland property prices are usually 1.5x New Zealand property prices. Now, let’s say Auckland property prices are actually 1.8x New Zealand property prices (in a specific month). In that case, Auckland property prices are overvalued by 20% at that point in time. If this was the case, it suggests a buying opportunity may exist in other regions outside of Auckland.

Where does the data come from?

The calculations are based on the REINZ House Price Index. This is the most reliable data source about how house prices change from month to month. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

How is the data calculated?

For proper data nerds, knowing how the data is calculated can be helpful. Each region's property prices are compared to New Zealand's property prices. For example, in May 2020, Invercargill’s property prices might be 60% of New Zealand’s (for the specific month). This is completed hundreds of times with all the data available.We then average those ratios to calculate an average. This lets us know, “on average, how expensive is each region compared to the rest of New Zealand?” For example, over the long term, Invercargill’s property prices might be 50% of New Zealand’s. We then look at where each region is on a specific month compared to that average. Let’s continue with the example of Invercargill. Under this scenario, property prices in the city are “usually” 50% of New Zealand’s prices. But on May 2020, Invercargill house prices were 60% of New Zealand’s prices (in this example only). That means that in May 2020, Invercargill house prices were 20% overvalued.

Can I download the data?

No. This data is an essential part of Opes Partners’ intellectual property. Although we are happy to make this available publicly (for free), we don’t allow people to download the data directly.

Can I reference the data in my article or research project?

Yes, you can reference the data if you are writing a report, article, or research project. The only requirement is that you mention that the data has been sourced from Opes Partners. That way, if people want to check the updated data, they know where to find it.

Property Market

6 min read

What's happening in the Nelson property market right now?

Everything you need to know about the Nelson Property Market before you buy or invest in the Nelson region. Data. Analysis. House Prices in Nelson.

Author: Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Reviewed by: Laine Moger

Journalist and Property Educator, holds a Bachelor of Communication (Honours) from Massey University.

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Nelson's median house price is $715,000

Nelson house prices

As at February 2025, the median house price in Nelson is $715,000. This is up from $365,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Nelson property increased in value by 6.96% each year, or $35,000 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Nelson is Marybank, which has a median house price of $869,050. That means that Marybank's median house price is 122% of Nelson’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Nelson is Toi Toi, which has a median house price of $553,550. That means that Toi Toi's median house price is 77% of Nelson’s median.

Over the last 24 months (Mar 2023 - Mar 2025), Bishopdale had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Nelson, at 2% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Maitai, which grew at a rate of -3% per year.

Will the NZ housing market get better in 2025?

Nelson's house price is 3.56% below its long term average

Is Nelson over or undervalued?

Nelson house prices look relatively cheap compared to where we'd expect them to be.

In the above graph, when the purple line is below the baseline (black line), Nelson's house values are undervalued. This suggests there is a buying opportunity in the region.

When Nelson’s house values are above the baseline, other regions have buying opportunities.

How is this calculated? Click on the accordions below to find out.

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the nelson property market?

Gross yields vary widely depending on which suburb you chose to investigate.

So, which suburbs in the Nelson property market have the highest gross rental yields?

Navigate the map to find the suburbs where houses produce the most cash for their investors.

How fast will Nelson population grow?

Over the next 25 years (2023 - 2048), Nelson city's population is expected to grow by 5.32%.

That means Nelson city's population is expected to grow from 54,500 to 57,400 people. An increase of 2,900.

How are Nelson's house prices changing right now?

Nelson's capital growth rate

The above graph shows how quickly house prices have increased or decreased over the previous 12 months. This is also known as ‘capital growth’.

So does this show how the property market is going right now?

Yes and no.

It shows how expensive properties are today compared to 12 months ago.

While this will give us a good sense of how property values have changed, it’s not the only thing to consider.

You might also look at how quickly property values are going up (or down) from month to month, the number of property sales and how quickly properties are selling.

What is the median rent in Nelson?

Nelson's median rent

The above graph shows the median rent within a given month.

The data comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and is provided through their Tenancy Services website.

Their data is based on all the rental bonds lodged by private landlords within the month.

What is the annual increase in rents in Nelson?

Nelson's annual increase in rents

This graph shows the annual growth in median rents.

The data also comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).

How many listings are currently available in Nelson?

Nelson and Bay's current listings (Housing stock)

This graph shows current property listings, with data sourced from realestate.co.nz.

It shows the number of listings that are currently available on the website per month.

You might be wondering: “How do the number of listings impact house prices?”

If many listings are available, then people will think there is lots of supply. This means that people feel like they can take their time choosing a property.

This leads to less competition and softer house prices.

On the other hand, if there aren’t many listings available, people will feel like there is a shortage of houses. This leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).

This makes people more competitive and more likely to bid up house prices.

How many properties are sold per year in Nelson?

Nelson – Number of properties sold per year

The above graph shows the total number of properties sold over the prior 12 months. For example, if looking at the data for August 2023, the graph will show all the sales between September 2022 – August 2023.

The data comes from the REINZ Market Insights Report and The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

You might be wondering: “How does the volume of sales impact house prices?”

They don’t impact house prices on their own. But a high number of sales represents a hot property market.

That’s because there are a lot of people out there buying property.

That’s why when sales volumes are high, property prices typically increase at the same time.

When property sales are falling, typically, property prices are also soft.

Nelson City suburb prices

Nelson City

Nelson City is made up of 20 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Marybank, which has an average house value of $869,050. While the most affordable suburb is Toi Toi, which has an average house value of $553,550.

Over the last 24 months of all the Nelson City suburbs (Mar 2023 - Mar 2025), Bishopdale had the fastest-growing house prices at 2.35% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Maitai, which grew at a rate of -2.83% per year.

Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.

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